Just a few weeks into the new administration, we are already seeing a glimpse of how cybersecurity will be evolving in the year ahead. Similar to the predictions of many of my colleagues, it should come as no surprise that artificial intelligence (AI) will continue dominating headlines and drive White House policy activity. Yet despite the associated frenzy, I am confident this landmark technology will be a positive forcing function for many organizations and one that helps leverage new and existing collaborations. Based on the early moves of the Trump administration, I’d expect our adversaries to heavily leverage cyberespionage to keep up. On the heels of Volt and Salt Typhoon, we know that sophisticated nation-state adversaries aren’t sitting on their hands. "Business as usual" for network defenders simply won’t cut it. We need an aggressive, evolved approach.
What else do I expect in the public cyberspace? From my vantage point as SVP of Public Sector for Palo Alto Networks (similar to our experts across Unit 42), I am buckling up for a year of disruption, whether it is with federal, state, local or educational organizations.
Federal Government
- AI Will Become Table Stakes
Federal cybersecurity professionals are working everyday to decipher record amounts of data and exponentially more threats than previous eras, only amplifying the issues associated with the cyberskills shortage. While teams are already using artificial intelligence to supplant many manual security operations, any federal agency that holds off on additional adoption will see increased burden on its employees and increased burnout. Both create fertile ground for mistakes and vulnerabilities. Coupled with stronger reporting requirements and incident transparency, AI technologies will be the elixir for the federal government. They can more easily deliver key public services and protect their systems from bad actors at the speed of cyber. This development can help lower the most critical metrics for success, especially mean time to detect and mean time to respond to threats. Federal agencies that embrace AI technologies will find themselves ahead of the curve in detecting threats and retaining skilled employees. However, those who are slow to adopt will drown in overwhelming amounts of data, security bottlenecks and exasperated teams. - The Unpaved Path to Global AI Consensus
Leaders and stakeholders around the world have already come together around the shared ideal to harness AI while minimizing risks and preventing unintended outcomes. And while countries may disagree on a path to achieve it, there is growing consensus that aggressively promoting AI security is central to this desired endstate. In 2025, we will see increased global alignment around a suite of security controls necessary for driving trust in AI systems. These include managing deployment environment governance, actively monitoring model behaviors, protecting model weights, enforcing strict access controls, and hardening deployment environment configurations. In aggregate, these security imperatives are supportive of Secure AI by Design concepts that while still behind the speed of private sector advancement, will be a significant disruptor in the private sector. Secure your AI systems or risk the assuredness of the systems themselves. - AI Will Advance Cyber Aggression from Foreign Nation States
Cyberspace has become a much more accessible attack surface for foreign threat actors, who use cyberattacks to destabilize critical infrastructure, government systems and key industries. In 2025, threats to non-computer-based systems will continue to rise, as foreign adversaries leverage AI to take power grids, pipelines and healthcare systems offline. AI-powered cyberattacks that deeply threaten national security, especially around major global events, such as national and supranational elections, are likely to rise. Adversaries are seeking to disrupt voting, distract policymakers and destabilize political institutions. Therefore, collaborative efforts between allied countries to enhance cyber defenses will be even more important to counteract state-sponsored cyber activities. - A Leaner Federal Workforce Drives Modernization and Security Efficacy
The shrinking workforce is driving a critical shift toward modernization and stronger security effectiveness. The Trump administration’s deferred-resignation offer will further accelerate the demand for automation and human-machine collaboration to counter evolving threats. With fewer resources, agencies must centralize and automate their security strategies. Managing a fragmented arsenal of security tools is already unsustainable and will only get worse unless a change in thinking occurs.
Additionally, the rapid expansion of cloud environments increases complexity, making manual security management impractical. The growing sophistication of cyberthreats, including AI-driven attacks, demands faster detection and response capabilities that only automation can provide. Compliance requirements are also becoming more stringent, necessitating real-time monitoring and enforcement that human teams alone cannot sustain.
To stay ahead of adversaries, automation and seamless integration are no longer optional; they are essential for meeting the escalating demands of cybersecurity. We will see the first major moves toward this direction in 2025. - The Rise of Silent Quantum Computing Threats
The threat of cyberattacks fueled by quantum computing is approaching faster than many federal agencies are equipped to withstand. In 2025, threat actors will ramp up their “harvest now, decrypt later” operations to steal government data and unlock it once technology allows. This presents an urgent threat to government systems running on previous-generation cybersecurity protections. The federal government will need to steel itself against these threats by enabling quantum-resistant tunneling, crypto data libraries and overall crypto-agility to respond to the rising speed and scale of cyberthreats and prevent theft of data in the first place.
State, Local and Educational Institutions
- AI Becomes an Imperative
Increased threats from adversaries coupled with ongoing workforce shortages make states among the most vulnerable when considering ever-increasing gaps in funding. All state decision makers need to be prioritizing investments in AI and staffing to continuously defend their digital landscape. Automation is key to success in 2025, there are not and will not be enough people available to meet the demanding tasks of the remainder of the decade. - Increased “Team Sport” Mentality
No longer will state, local and educational institutions be able to function within the silos of their respective sectors. The confluence of AI, along with pervasive challenges long-faced by organizations fraught with funding shortfalls and ransomware attacks, will force institutions to finally operate within a cohesive ecosystem. From shared SOCs to consistent information sharing, leadership will be well served to consider how they are “better together.” States will need to work together for their mutual benefit and they will need to help underfunded cities, towns and local municipalities. - Cybersecurity Becomes a Campus Utility
Long viewed as an IT function, higher education institutions will now begin to treat cybersecurity as a required campus utility, and consolidate their vendor approach. In the current threat landscape, cybersecurity as an afterthought is no longer an option, and these institutions need to consider it in the same way they do their other built-in essential resources. Investments in network protections, and likely the secure browser, must be part and parcel of all budget and planning considerations. - Primary and Secondary Schools Join the Fight
Similar to regulations seen by the federal government, K-12 education is likely to have their hand forced when it comes to leaning into some of the most important basic tenets of cybersecurity. With cyberattacks, and specifically ransomware, nearly doubling in schools from 2021-2023, schools will be faced with changing a culture set against a backdrop of continued budgetary challenges. K-12 institutions are set to face mounting regulatory pressure to adopt holistic cybersecurity strategies and institute consistent MFA and Zero Trust requirements with schools under increasing attacks and many developers slow to appropriately develop sector-specific protections. Look to the Secure Browser to change the math in the K-12 space by lowering costs and increasing capabilities.
To discover more, see our 7 game-changing predictions for 2025 from Palo Alto Networks.